This article is going to focus on the right field situation, where Pirates' management has made it clear that they are comfortable going into the 2014 season with the players they already have in the organization. The options at the beginning of Spring Training included Jaff Decker, Gregory Polanco, Andrew Lambo, Travis Snider, and Jose Tabata. The players with the best chance of claiming the starting job at right entering Spring Training were Travis Snider and Jose Tabata, the duo the Pirates had starting going into the 2013 season. However, the name that may stand out most on that list is Gregory Polanco, who was optioned to AAA Indianapolis on Friday. Polanco is a 6'4", 220 lb center fielder who can hit, hit for power, run, field, and throw, is rated the top prospect in the Pirates' organization by virtually every major baseball outlet, and is rated as the tenth best prospect in baseball by Baseball America. Polanco has received a lot of hype in the recent months, winning both the Most Valuable Player and Rookie Of the Year awards in the Dominican Winter League, as well as impressing almost every scout that has seen him this spring. It seems that nearly every time I have turned on the radio to listen to 93.7 The Fan and they are talking about the Pirates, a lot of the discussion and calls revolve around Polanco, and the question "Should Polanco be on the opening day roster?" is posed.
Entering the 2012 season, the same question was being asked about Starling Marte, who was coming off a season where he hit .332 with 12 home runs and an .870 OPS in AA. In 25 spring at bats, Marte had already hit three homers, had a .520 average, and an OPS of 1.440, and fans were calling for him to be in the opening day lineup over Jose Tabata or Alex Presley. However, Marte was sent to AAA to begin the season, where he hit .286 with 12 homers and an .847 OPS in 388 at bats before being called up to the majors in July. In his first full season in 2013, Marte had a batting line of .280/.343/.441, with 12 home runs, 41 stolen bases, an OPS of .784, and a 5.4 WAR. There were a few reasons why Marte was sent down, and two major reasons were to get him time playing in a corner outfield spot, and also to work on his plate discipline. Also, Marte had no at bats at the AAA level heading into the 2012 season. Polanco is in a similar situation from a position standpoint, as he has only seven games in right field over the past three seasons, the position he will be playing in the majors. A big difference between the two, however, is their approach at the plate. Marte struggled with strikeouts and walks while in the minors (and still does), while Polanco has above average plate discipline, with a career 15.52% strikeout rate in the minors, along with a 9.56% walk rate. Polanco, like Marte, has basically no experience at the AAA level (nine AB's), and some extra seasoning can be very beneficial to a player's future.
The Pirates have had a few top position player prospects graduate to the majors in the recent years, most notably Marte, Andrew McCutchen, and Pedro Alvarez. Polanco joins this group as another potential impact bat at the top or in the middle of the Pirates' lineup. But, how did each of those other three players reach the majors?
Starling Marte: Marte was signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2007, and played in parts of five seasons before reaching AAA to begin the 2012 season. Marte was pushed aggressively through the lower levels, never receiving a full season's worth of games at any level, which was also largely due to injuries. His first full season came in 2011 at AA, where he improved upon his lower level success, added power to his game, and become a consensus top 75 prospect in the game. While he could have been used as a primary corner outfielder in the majors to open the 2012 season, the Pirates sent him to AAA, where he received 388 at bats before being called up to the majors.
Andrew McCutchen: These next two players are in a different situation than Marte, as they were both first round draft picks by the Pirates. McCutchen was the 11th overall pick out of high school in 2005, and began his professional career that year in the Gulf Coast League. In his first full season at the age of 19, McCutchen spent most of the year in low-A before being aggressively pushed to AA to end the season, where he totaled 78 at bats. McCutchen returned to that level in 2007, spending the majority of the season at that level before ending in AAA. In 2008, McCutchen spent a full season at the AAA level, and had two more months at that level before being called up in June of 2009 following the Nate McClouth trade. Cutch had a total of 780 at bats at the AAA level.
Pedro Alvarez: Alvarez was drafted out of college in 2008 as the number two overall pick, and as an elite college hitter it was assumed he would move quickly through the minors. That assumption proved true, as he spent his first full season in 2009 splitting time between high-A and AA, before moving on to AAA to begin the 2010 season. Alvarez was called up to the majors in June of that year after only receiving 242 at bats at the AAA level.
Alvarez was ranked higher as a prospect than both Marte and McCutchen, and also spent much less time in the minors than they did. Alvarez was considered a middle of the order power threat that could carry an offense, but like Marte, Alvarez struggled with his plate discipline. In 2009, Alvarez struck out in 23.80% of his plate appearances, and saw that number increase in 2010 at AAA, up to 24.46%. As I'm sure Pirates fans are very well aware of, Alvarez's strikeout problems have followed him to the majors. In his MLB career, Alvarez has a 30.57% strikeout rate, leading the NL with 186 in 2013. Plate discipline was possibly the biggest aspect of Alvarez's game that is holding him back from being an MVP candidate, and was something he really needed to work on in the minors, but didn't have much of a chance to because he was rushed to the majors too quickly. McCutchen basically spent one and a half years at the AAA level, and had instant success at the major league level, and is the reigning MVP. Marte used his time to become more patient at the plate, drawing more walks, while also learning a new position and getting more experience against upper level pitching. He received less than 400 at bats at AAA, and experienced some difficulties in his rookie season, hitting .257 with a .737 OPS. He rebounded in 2013 and had a 5.4 WAR (5 is considered All-Star level), not too shabby for your first full year. Maybe some extra time in the minors is a good thing.
One thing that must be taken into consideration is Polanco's service time. There is no set time for this, but if Polanco started the season in the majors and remains in the majors for good during the first couple or months, give or take a week or two, he will become a free agent at the conclusion of the 2019 season. However, since they held back and are going to give him the valuable time in the minors that he may need and wait to recall him until mid-June or July, then he would not be eligible to become a free agent until after the 2020 season. That leads to the question "Would you rather have two extra months of Polanco as a rookie, or an extra year of Polanco while he is in his prime?" That seems like an easy answer, one where the Pirates made the right decision. Some will point to the fact that the Pirates could be in contention during the 2014 season and that having Polanco in the lineup throughout the year could have pushed them into the playoffs. While that may be true, the fact of the matter is that the Pirates have one of the top farm systems in baseball, and they are set up to contend for the foreseeable future, including 2020. This is an extremely-too-early look at the Pirates possible 2020 lineup and rotation (Currently no players are under contract for the 2020 season. This is assuming that all players who are not under team control in 2020 will not remain with the organization, while there is a good chance that will not be the case. Also, there will be many other players added to the organization via signings, trades, and drafted that will not appear on this list.)
Rotation
1.) Jameson Taillon (if he is recalled mid-June or later this year)
2.) Tyler Glasnow
3.) Nick Kingham
4.) Luis Heredia
5.) Brandon Cumpton
C- Reese McGuire
1B- Josh Bell
2B- Jacoby Jones
3B- Wyatt Mathisen
SS- Alen Hanson
LF- Austin Meadows
CF- Gregory Polanco
RF- Harold Ramirez
If you look at this list, eight of the 13 players (the ones in bold) have been ranked as top 100 prospects heading into the 2014 season. Luis Heredia is 19 years old and has been previously listed on top prospect lists, and 19 year old Harold Ramirez could very well show up on those lists as soon as mid-season. The only positions where the Pirates don't have a lot of minor league depth is at 1B, 2B, and 3B, as Bell (OF), Jones (SS/OF), and Mathisen (C), don't currently play the positions I have them listed at in this future projection. Regardless, the Pirates have a very good future outlook, and it would appear the Pirates will be in contention for a long time. Polanco could very well help the team at the beginning of 2014, but two months of his rookie season will not compare to having him for a full season in his prime in 2020. Also, the Pirates may have one or two capable players to man right field for a couple of months until Polanco arrives in Pittsburgh.
The most over-looked player on the Pirates in 2013 may very well have been Jose Tabata. His line at the end of the year was a solid .282/.342/.429, with a career high .771 OPS in 308 at bats. Tabata also had career highs with six home runs and a 119 OPS+ (100 being average). To put that in perspective, Neil Walker had an OPS+ of 115, Pedro Alvarez was at 116, and Starling Marte was at 122. When Tabata was receiving everyday at bats in August, he batted .310 and had an OPS of .851 in 84 at bats. He also had a strong month of September when Marte went down with an injury, batting .315 with an .844 OPS in 73 at bats. Tabata has never been one to strike out much, with a career 14.4% strikeout rate, and showed considerable more power in 2013, with a .146 ISO (Slugging percentage minus batting average), compared to .105 in 2012 and .096 in 2011. There is a chance that he may not continue that power, as only his home run to fly ball rate (HR/FB) showed significant improvement in 2013, at a relatively high 10.2% in 2013, compared to 5.6%, 6.7%, and 4.8% over the previous three seasons. His swing isn't built for much power, but he has the muscle to possibly hit around 10-12 homers over a full season. Fans also tend to forget how young Tabata is, with 2013 being his age 24 season, still giving him plenty of time to figure things out and become the player many thought he would be after his rookie season in 2010. Tabata could receive the majority of AB's in right until Polanco is recalled, and if that is the case, the Pirates will be able to see what they have in Tabata for the future.
Another player that is in real consideration for the right field job is Travis Snider. Snider was acquired in a Trade Deadline deal in 2012 that sent pitcher Brad Lincoln to the Blue Jays in return for Snider. Snider was once the number six prospect in baseball heading into the 2009 season, and has had some success at the major league level, hitting 14 home runs in 298 at bats as a 22 year old in 2010. However, Snider has not received much regular playing time in the majors since then, and has also dealt with injuries. When Snider was healthy and receiving regular playing time during April of 2013, he hit .300 in 60 AB's with a .799 OPS. Unfortunately, Snider hit .189 for the rest of the season over 201 AB's, dropping his season average to .215. Personally, it has been difficult for me to watch Snider play as a Pirate, as he has yet to take advantage of the situation he was placed in, coming to Pittsburgh with a great opportunity at a young age of 24 with no one blocking him in right field. He was three years removed from being one of the top prospects in the game, and he was showing power at both the minor and major league level that year, with a combined 16 home runs in 267 at bats. Snider arrived in Pittsburgh with a lot of promise, but has not lived up to it, or even come close. In 389 AB's as a Bucco, Snider has hit .226 with a .627 OPS, and only six home runs. He's not hitting the ball nearly as hard as he has in the past, with a 15.2% line drive percentage in 2013, compared to 24.3% in 2010, and an 8.2% HR/FB rate last year, not a good number for a guy who is supposed to be a power hitter. This lack of good contact can be attributed to his swing, which is long and involves too much of his upper body and arms, rather than his legs, which takes away from his power. With all that being said, there are positive vibes surrounding Snider during Spring Training. He made a great effort to get in better shape, he's looked good in workouts, and he's healthy. Snider will most likely never be the 30 home run hitter many thought he could be, but he has shown in the past, and recently at the beginning of 2013, that when he's healthy and receiving a lot of at bats, he can produce at the major league level. Will he get the chance entering his age 26 season? That remains to be seen. But don't count him out, he has a career .968 OPS in 728 AB's in AAA, and has had previous success in the majors. I think there was another player recently who was a former top prospect who broke out at the age of 26 after finally receiving regular playing time at the major league level. I believe his name was Chris Davis.
Tabata is a right handed batter, and Snider is a lefty, making it likely that the Pirates head into the 2014 season with a plan to platoon those two players, like they did to begin the 2013 season. Both players have dealt with injuries over the years, and it is very possible that at least one of these two go down with an injury early in the season, giving the everyday at bats to the other member of the platoon. If both of these players go down with an injury or are under-performing at the plate and management is not yet comfortable with Polanco as the primary right fielder, the team could turn to Jaff Decker, Andrew Lambo, or even Chris Dickerson, who is having a great Spring at the plate so far. Lambo would seem to be the best option, but he may be half of a first base platoon with Gaby Sanchez. If they would turn to Lambo in right, Sanchez could take over full-time at first, or Chris McGuiness, who was acquired from the Rangers this offseason, could take over Lambo's role as the lefty platoon partner.
Polanco has tremendous upside, there's no doubt about it. He has the ability to one day be a .300+ hitter with 25 home runs, 40 stolen bases, and Gold Glove caliber defense in the outfield. Basically, Polanco could be another Andrew McCutchen in the Pirates outfield. I also believe Marte has the upside of a .300+ hitter with 20 homers and 40 stolen bases, and a combination of those three players would easily give the Pirates the best outfield in the majors, and maybe the best in franchise history. But, should that happen right away? McCutchen is under contract until 2018 if the Pirates pick up his option, the same year as Marte's last season under team control. That would still give the Pirates four full seasons of a Marte-McCutchen-Polanco outfield before Marte and McCutchen could leave via free agency, as well as possibly half a season in 2014 in addition to those four years. Minor league time is very valuable for players to work on their struggles, and rushing a player's development can limit their future potential, which can be exemplified by Pedro Alvarez, who could have benefitted greatly from more time in the minors and been more than the all-or-nothing type hitter he is today.
Is Gregory Polanco talented enough to make the opening day roster? Yes. Should Gregory Polanco have made the opening day roster? No. Polanco needs more experience against upper level pitching, with just nine AB's at the AAA level under his belt, and only half a season at AA, where he didn't exactly set the world on fire with his hitting. He has hit well during Spring Training so far, but the quality of the pitching he has faced so far is basically at the AAA level, according to Baseball Reference. Polanco also needs time to get accustomed to right field, where he will be playing when he gets the call to the majors. In the meantime, the Pirates should be comfortable with a combination of Jose Tabata and Travis Snider in right. If things go right, the two have the ability to produce an OPS of .780-.800, if not higher, as evidenced by Tabata's last two months and Snider's first month of 2013. It is very probable that we will see Polanco join Marte and McCutchen in the Pirates' outfield at some point in 2014, but it would not be in the organization's best interest for him to start the season in the MLB.
Pirates fans are going to have to take the same approach that the tall, young, and athletic phenom Gregory Polanco has at the plate: Just be patient. He'll be here soon enough.
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