On paper, this is a great deal for the Pirates. If you look at the current market, it's an even better deal for the organization. With Major League Baseball's markets quickly evolving, contract amounts are skyrocketing, which can be exemplified by Clayton Kershaw's seven year, $215 million contract, good for over $30 million per year. In a case more similar to Marte, we saw Jacoby Ellsbury sign a long-term deal with the Yankees over this offseason, a deal worth $153 million over seven years, which is over $21 million per year. Curtis Granderson, coming off of a season where he totaled only 214 at bats, signed a four year, $60 million deal with the Mets. Both of these players are into their thirties now and have passed their prime, and are still commanding $21+ million and $15 contracts over multiple years. Looking more closely, Ellsbury posted a 5.8 WAR in his age 29 season in 2013, while Granderson posted a 3.0 WAR in his last full season in 2012, which was his age 31 season. In comparison to that, Marte put up a 5.4 WAR in 2013, which was his first full year, and it came at the age of 24. Marte actually posted a higher OPS, OPS+, and home run numbers than Ellsbury did in 2013, however Ellsbury played center field for the Red Sox, a more premium position that factors into the higher WAR number. Marte also bested Ellsbury in UZR/150 (which can be explained by clicking here), where Marte posted a 18.4 UZR/150, while Ellsbury posted a UZR/150 of 12.9.
The reason I'm comparing these players is not to determine which player is better right now, it's to show the kind of market that exists for players with similar production to Marte. Marte signed a six year, $31 million deal, but players with his skill set are receiving huge contracts on the open market, with another example being Shin-Soo Choo, who signed a seven year, $130 million deal this offseason. One can point to the idea that a player like Ellsbury is proven and more of a sure bet than Marte is, but if you look at the past five years of Ellsbury's career, he has posted WAR's of 5.8, 1.0, 8.1, -0.1, and 2.7, while playing only three full years. In baseball, nothing is a sure bet. Look at Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, or even the 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates, things didn't happen the way people thought they would. Any huge contract like Ellsbury's, Choo's, or Granderson's inherently comes with a large amount of risk. Even Marte's contract, or even Jose Tabata's six year, $15 million contract, comes with some risk, although it is much more minimized. The difference between the big contacts and Marte's contract is the years that the team is paying for during the contract. Typically, a hitter's prime years come in his late twenties, meaning that the Yankees are paying over $21 million per year for a declining Jacoby Ellsbury, who will be a completely different player at the end of the contract than when he originally signed the deal. In Marte's case, he's entering his age-25 season, meaning that he may not hit his prime seasons for a few more years. The Pirates are betting on Marte improving on his already impressive start to his career, and are doing it with reduced risk of a contract that has an average annual value of about $5.17 million, compared to a contract that could be worth over $20 million a year if Marte was on the open market after the Pirates no longer had team control.
It's hard to not become excited about Marte's future with the Pirates. Marte was better in his first full season than Andrew McCutchen was in his, and both put up a 5.4 WAR in their age-24 season. Marte had a higher line drive percentage at age 24 than McCutchen did, 21.6% compared to 20.0%, and had the same home run to fly ball ratio. Marte stole more bases and was better in the field, with power being the only major category where Marte trailed McCutchen, and I'll take this chance to mention that Marte's power is still evolving. Am I saying that Marte is better than McCutchen was at the same point in their career's? No. Am I suggesting there is a chance that Marte could approach what McCutchen is doing with his career right now? Definitely. Marte is a supremely talented player who can be a true five-tool outfielder with a batting average over .300, home run totals approaching 20 per year, 40 stolen bases, an a perennial Gold Glove candidate in the outfield. He has the talent, he has the numbers, and he's young, all pointing to a very bright future for Marte.
Like I've stated previously, there is risk in this contract. He may not improve the way the Pirates think he will. Marte strikes out a lot and barely walks, with a 24.4% strikeout rate and a 4.4% walk rate. His BABIP was also very high in 2013, at .363, a number that will most likely become lower in 2014 and beyond. However, the upside of this deal, and of Marte, is enormous, and it far outweighs the risk of an average annual value of $5.17 million for the contract. Marte is one of the most talented young players in the majors right now, both offensively and defensively, and is only heading into his age 25-season, meaning there is a lot of time for his game to grow. We saw how much of a steal a contract extension can be for a hugely talented 25 year old outfielder after McCutchen signed for $51.5 million over six years before 2012, and the Pirates could receive even more value per dollar on this deal. Overall, the Pirates just signed a great player for a great value. Paired with McCutchen for the foreseeable future, the Pirates may have one of the best outfield duos in the majors. They also have someone named Gregory Polanco coming up to the show soon, who could be just as good, or even better, than Marte or McCutchen.
Nice job, Mr. Huntington and staff.
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