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Saturday, March 29, 2014

2014 MLB Preview



The 2014 MLB season will officially start today, although there have been two games that have technically already been played between the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks, with the Dodgers winning both those games.  Opening Day is always a special day, for both fans and players, and after five months of no regular season or postseason games, I think its fair to say we are ready for the season to start.  With that being said, here are my projections for each division, the playoffs, power rankings, and awards, along with write-ups for each team.


AL East

1.) Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are coming off their third World Series win in ten years, and are poised to make another deep October run.  The team is not without its flaws, as the outfield is definitely a concern, especially with Jacoby Ellsbury's replacement being Grady Sizemore in center, a guy who hasn't had a full season in the majors since 2008.  21 year-old shortstop Xander Bogaerts will get a full season in the majors, and could produce anywhere from 12-20 home runs.  The rotation could be top ten, or it could easily fall into the bottom half of the league if they battle injuries again and Lester and Lackey revert back to 2012 form.
2.) Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays will once again be led by a very strong rotation that consists of David Price, Matt Moore, Alex Cobb, and Chris Archer, along with Jeremy Hellickson and Jake Odorizzi.  The offense may not produce like a playoff team, with Evan Longoria and Wil Myers as the only true offensive threats on the team.  Still, the rotation should be able to carry them into the playoffs.
3) New York Yankees
A lot of people aren't treating the Yankees as though they could be a real contender, but in reality they have a very solid team, that is if they can stay healthy.  If by some miracle the majority of their roster stays healthy, the Yankees could even contend for the division title, but the likelihood of that is very low.  The rotation could be very strong, with newly added Masahiro Tanaka looking like a potential top of the rotation pitcher during Spring Training, with CC Sabathia looking great, as well.  Don't be surprised if the Yankees win over 90 games.
4.) Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles will begin the year without Manny Machado, but will still have a lineup full of power with Chris Davis, Nelson Cruz, Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, and J.J. Hardy.  Machado will provide a boost to the already strong lineup, along with some of the best defense in the majors, if he can remain healthy.  The rotation isn't as much of a sure thing, without a true number one starter that could lead them deep into the postseason.  Jimenez is more of a number two or strong number three starter, and behind Chris Tillman, the rotation consists of three number four starters.  That could change, however, with Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy having a chance to impact the rotation at some point in 2014.
5.) Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays will be fueled by a strong lineup, which could become even better with a full season from Jose Bautista, who could approach 40 home runs in 550+ at bats.  Brett Lawrie could also emerge as an impact bat, and Edwin Encarnacion remains relatively underrated despite being one of the best power threats in the game.  The rotation, however, could be a disaster.  When you're apparent ace is a 39 year-old knuckleballer with a 4.21 ERA the previous year, there's a slight problem.  Still, the Blue Jays could be the best fifth team in the division in the majors.

AL Central

1.) Detroit Tigers
The Tigers have very few holes in their team, with the only real problems being shortstop and left field.  Elite defender Jose Iglesias was slotted to be the starting shortstop until he went down with injuries in his shins that will keep him out until midseason.  Miguel Cabrera, the best hitter in the league, will have a shot at another triple crown, but will no longer have Prince Fielder behind him in the lineup, and it will be interesting to see the effects of that, as the player Fielder has batted behind has won his league's MVP the last three years.  The Tigers will also have Nick Castellanos for a full season, and they could receive around 15-20 home runs from him, along with an average around .270, if not higher.  The rotation is deep, with the top three starters, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Anibal Sanchez all being true aces.  The Tigers are the team to beat in the AL heading into 2014.
2.) Kansas City Royals
The Royals are too far behind the Tigers to have a legitimate chance at the division title, barring any major injuries, and may not even have enough to contend for a Wild Card spot.  The lineup could either be very good, but it could also be below average.  Players like Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, and Salvador Perez could carry the lineup, or they could falter and have none of them reach an .800 OPS.  Mike Moustakas could have a chance at a breakout season after an extremely impressive spring, but he could also remain the same player he was in 2013, where he produced a -0.1 WAR.  There are a lot of questions in the rotation after James Shields, with middle to back end of the rotation starters filling out the rotation.  Flame-throwing 22 year-old Yordano Ventura, who has hit triple digits on multiple occasions this spring, could be a player to watch.  A lot of things would have to go right for the Royals to earn a playoff birth in 2014, but they have the upside on offense to make it happen.
3.) Chicago White Sox
There are a wide range of outcomes for the White Sox in 2014.  They could contend for a Wild Card Spot, or they could lose over 90 games, with the most likely outcome being somewhere in the middle.  The team acquired a couple of interesting players over the offseason, with Adam Eaton and Jose Abreu earning spots on the Opening Day roster.  Eaton, an athletic center fielder, didn't have much success in half a year at the major league level in 2013, but hit .381 in 488 at bats at the AAA level in 2012.  Abreu was signed for $68 over six years out of Cuba, and is said to have easy power that could produce of 30 home runs a year, and so far has been praised by coaches and teammates for his work ethic.  The rotation has a good pair of lefties, with Chris Sale being one of the best lefty starters in the game, and Jose Quintana having a lot of success in 2013.  If Eaton and Abreu experience success, Dayan Viciedo and Avisail Garcia improve upon 2013, Adam Dunn manages 30+ homers again and the back of the rotation pitches respectably, the team could contend for the Wild Card spot, but like the Royals, a lot of things have to go right for that to happen.
4.) Cleveland Indians
The Indians really are what they are, with no real upside in their lineup and no true ace in the rotation.  Justin Masterson can pitch like a number one starter at times, but he is not a consistent ace, and the members of the rotation behind him are unproven.  The lineup isn't going to be anything special, but it isn't going to be bad.  Carlos Santana will move to third base this season from behind the plate, but his offense will still play at the hot corner, and could even see an improvement this year.  Asdrubal Cabrera is in his final season before free agency, so look for him to improve on his stats from 2013.  The Indians managed to make the playoffs in 2013, but it doesn't appear as though they have the roster to make another run in 2014.
5.) Minnesota Twins
The Twins finished with the fifth worst record in the MLB in 2013, and will have a real shot at finishing dead-last in 2014.  Joe Mauer is still a great hitter, but with no protection around him, expect his numbers to slip a little this year as pitchers will pitch around him.  The Twins added Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes to the rotation over the offseason, but that probably won't be enough to carry the team over 70 wins.  On a positive side, the Twins have the top prospect in the game in Byron Buxton.  But back to the negatives, they lost the best power hitting prospect in the minors, Miguel Sano, to Tommy John surgery that will keep him out of the field for the rest of the season.

AL West

1.) Texas Rangers
The Rangers allowed Nelson Cruz to walk over the offseason, and also missed 50 games from him during the season for a PED suspension, but made up for the loss by signing Shin-Soo Choo and trading Ian Kinsler for Prince Fielder.  The team potentially has a very powerful lineup, with six players capable of 20+ homer seasons, albeit with a low average from guys like Mitch Moreland and J.P. Arencibia.  The team lost Jurickson Profar, the number one prospect in baseball last year, to an injury that could keep him out for the first half of the season, now leaving an offensive hole at second base, forcing Elvis Andrus to step up his mediocre offensive performances to this point.  Yu Darvish has emerged as one of the top starters in the game, but questions remain behind him in the rotation.  Will Tanner Scheppers be able to make a smooth transition from the bullpen to the rotation?  How will Martin Perez hold up over 180+ IP.  Right now, the team has the talent to win the division, and a big season from Prince Fielder and the continued dominance from Darvish could keep them ahead of the A's.
2.) Oakland Athletics
The A's should once again be in contention with a team built around non-superstars, but players that nonetheless win games.  There is concern that players won't be able to repeat their 2013 performances, as it is doubtful that Coco Crisp will hit over 20 home runs again, and it is not a sure bet that Brandon Moss will hit 30 homers in 2014.  Josh Donaldson had a breakout season in 2013, finishing fourth in the AL MVP voting, but can he sustain the same offensive production for another season, or could he even improve on it?  A player that could emerge as an MVP candidate is Yoenis Cespedes, the Cuban outfielder who saw a huge drop off in production in his sophomore season.  Cespedes is a player that could approach 30 home runs and hit for a .270+ average, but who could also hit .225 like he did in the first half of 2013.  The rotation has become shallow after injuries to Jarrod Parker and A.J. Griffin, leading to Jesse Chavez being listed as the fifth starter.  The A's could once again compete for the division title, but a lot of things could also go wrong, and don't be taken off guard if the team fails to reach .500.
3.) Los Angeles Angels
The Angels have a lot of upside on their offense this year, with newly extended Mike Trout leading the way.  There is little doubt that Trout can put up MVP-caliber numbers again on offense while playing superior defense and being a threat on the bases, but there are questions with regards to the two players on the roster that are making more money per year than Trout.  Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton were very recently some of the best hitters in the game, with Pujols possibly being the best.  If Pujols and Hamilton produce as they are capable of, which at this point is around a .280+ average with 30+ home runs, then the Angels could very well be in the race for the division title.  If those two produce similar totals in 2014 as they did in 2013, then the playoffs are not likely.  The rotation will be led by Jared Weaver and C.J. Wilson, and could get a major boost from recently added Tyler Skaggs, who will get a chance to rebound in 2014 in a new organization.  The team has the potential to win the division, but Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton will have to return to All-Star form for that to become a reality.
4.) Seattle Mariners
The Mariners were able to sign the top free agent over the offseason, inking Robinson Cano to a ten year, $240 million deal.  Cano will lead an offense that is full of wild cards, with Kyle Seager, Justin Smoak, Corey Hart, Logan Morrison, Dustin Ackley, and Mike Zunino all having the potential to have very productive seasons.  Hart didn't play in 2013, but could easily be a .270 hitter with 25 homers, and Mike Zunino is a good candidate to have a breakout season, despite struggling at the plate in 2013 at both the major league and AAA levels.  The rotation will once again be led by Felix Hernandez, who is coming off a year where he posted the best strikeout rate of his career.  He will be joined by an intriguing young duo of top prospects James Paxton and Taijuan Walker when they are both healthy, along with Hisashi Iwakuma when he returns from the disabled list.  If all four are healthy for the majority of the season, the Mariners could have a dominant rotation for this year, as well as for the foreseeable future.  It is unlikely the Mariners make a run at the playoffs this year, but with the potential for a few breakout and rebound seasons in the lineup and a potentially dominant rotation, the Mariners could be a great dark-horse candidate for the Wild Card.
5.) Houston Astros
The Astros may actually not end the season with the worst record in the majors this year, which would end a streak of three consecutive seasons.  The Astros acquired center fielder Dexter Fowler from the Rockies over the offseason, but Fowler is coming from an extreme hitter friendly park at Coors where he put up a career .880 home OPS, compared to a .694 road OPS.  Catcher Jason Castro could turn some heads this year, quietly coming off of a year where he posted a .835 OPS that was overshadowed by how bad the team was in 2013.  The Astros could also see big contributions from rookies George Springer and Jonathan Singleton, especially from Springer, who nearly had a 40-40 season in the minors in 2013 across AA and AAA.  The rotation is filled with inexperience outside of Scott Feldman, but Jarred Cosart was very impressive in his 60 innings at the major league level last year, posting a 1.95.  The Astros have built one of the best farm systems in the majors, and should be able to break the streak of posting the worst record in the majors.

AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Rangers
Wild Card: Rays over Athletics

ALDS: Tigers over Rays
             Red Sox over Rangers
ALCS: Tigers over Red Sox



NL East

1.) Washington Nationals
The Nationals are loaded in both the lineup and the rotation heading into 2014, with the pair of Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg ready to take the next step into superstardom.  Harper is coming off his age 20 season where he saw a slight improvement in his offense over the previous year, but also dealt with injuries throughout the season.  Many are projecting that a healthy Bryce Harper could reach his full potential and produce like he did in April of 2013, not too long before he missed significant time due to injury, a month where he hit .344 with nine home runs and a 1.150 OPS.  Strasburg had a great season in 2013, but with a newly added slider and more than three years removed from Tommy John surgery, Strasburg should be ready to contend for the Cy Young award.  Behind those two, the Nationals have another potential young star in Anthony Rendon, who should easily improve on a season where he was basically an average hitter.  They also have the potential to be the potential for the best rotation in the league, led by Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez, and Doug Fister.  The Nationals are poised to improve on their "disappointing" 86 win season in 2013 and could play deep into October.
2.) Atlanta Braves
The Braves came into spring training looking like a true contender, but they hit a major bump in the road when star pitchers Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy went down for the season with Tommy John surgeries.  Now the pressure will be on Julio Teheran, in his second full season, and recently signed Ervin Santana to lead the rotation, with very little experience behind them.  The lineup should be a bright spot, especially if Jason Heyward can produce like he did in his rookie season in 2010, and if Justin Upton can return to 2011 form.  B.J. Upton and Dan Uggla only have room to grow, and Evan Gattis and Chris Johnson should combine to have similar production as they did in 2013.  Without a strong rotation and with strong competition for the Wild Card, the Braves may have to wait until next year to contend.
3.) Philadelphia Phillies
What can you say about the Phillies?  Do they truly believe they are in contention for a playoff spot in 2014?  Offseason additions of Marlon Byrd and A.J. Burnett would certainly point to that mindset, but the reality is that the Phillies are an aging team that no longer has the offensive core to make a run at the playoffs.  35 year-old Jimmy Rollins has basically been an average player since 2009, and 34 year-old Ryan Howard has lost a great deal of power and ability to hit for average, and those are very unlikely to come back at his age.  The rotation should still be strong with Burnett, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels, with Hamels starting the year on the DL.  If the team isn't in contention in July, then it is likely the Phils will shop Lee at the trade deadline.  At this point, the Phillies are more of a .500 team than a contender, but with a massive TV deal in the near future, that could change very quickly.
4.) New York Mets
The hope of the Mets returning to .500 in 2014 lies with Curtis Granderson and Ike Davis, two guys that have the ability to drive in runs and put the ball over the fence, but are also coming off seasons they would like to forget.  Granderson spent most of the season on the DL, and was ineffective while he was playing, and Ike Davis simply had a disastrous season at the plate.  Travis D'Arnaud could eventually become one of the best offensive catchers in the game, but there is usually a large adjustment period for rookie catchers.  While the rotation looks strong for the future, the Mets will play 2014 without star Matt Harvey, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery.  The rotation will consist of Bartolo Colon, Dillon Gee and Zach Wheeler, along with Jonathon Niese and Daisuke Matsuzaka.  Top prospect Noah Syndergaard will be up at some point in 2014 to bolster the rotation.  The trio of Syndergaard, Wheeler, and Harvey will strike fear into opponents eyes in the future, but for now, teams won't be too afraid of the Mets.
5.) Miami Marlins
The Marlins offense was absolutely horrible in 2013, and the only real threat they had, Giancarlo Stanton, was rarely pitched to because opposing pitchers knew they could just get the next batter out.  The Marlins added a little bulk to their lineup over the offseason, and will now have Garrett Jones and Jarrod Saltalamacchia batting behind Stanton, giving him a little more protection.  The rotation is extremely young, with an average age of 23.6 years for the projected rotation, led by 2013 NL Rookie of the Year Jose Fernandez.  It is unlikely Fernandez can put up a 2.19 ERA again in 2014, but a number between 2.30-2.50 is very reasonable.  The combo of Stanton and Fernandez should be exciting to watch, along with Christian Yelich in the outfield, but the Marlins appear to be headed for the cellar of the NL East for the fourth straight season.

NL Central

1.) St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals made it to the World Series in 2013, and will have another solid chance of making it again this season.  The strength of the team comes with its rotation, with perennial Cy Young candidate Adam Wainwright leading the way.  Michael Wacha, who was extremely impressive in September and October last year, will have his first full season in the majors, and Shelby Miller will look to improve upon a great 2013 where he posted a 3.06 ERA in his first full season.  Lance Lynn will follow them in the rotation, and is as good a fourth starter as you can ask for.  The Cards lost Carlos Beltran to the Yankees, but will have Matt Adams in the the lineup as a starter now, along with consensus top-five prospect Oscar Tavaras expected to join the team by midseason.  A question that does exist with this team is the amount of production they will receive from Jhonny Peralta, who is coming off a PED suspension during the 2013 season.  Melky Cabrera saw a huge drop off the year after his PED suspension, from a .906 OPS in 2012 to a .682 OPS in 2013, although he did play 2013 in the AL East, usually a much better division than the NL West.  Even if Peralta lacks production, the Cardinals are solid all-around and the NL Central is theirs to lose.

2.) Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates surprised everyone in 2013 by winning 94 games and taking the Cardinals to the fifth game of the NLDS.  The Pirates will look to continue that success in 2014, although a 94-win season may be a little out of reach.  The Pirates have questions in their rotation, with Edinson Volquez earning the fifth spot in the rotation despite a 5.71 ERA in 2013 and a 9.64 ERA this spring.  Wandy Rodriguez missed most of the 2013 season and should provide solid numbers for the team if he can remain healthy, but the loss of A.J. Burnett will leave a lot of room for improvement for the rotation.  Gerrit Cole could emerge as a superstar in 2014, and Francisco Liriano should be able to pitch at least like a mid-rotation starter.  Andrew McCutchen is the reigning NL MVP, and the Pirates could have one of the best outfields in the majors once top prospect Gregory Polanco joins McCutchen and Starling Marte in the outfield.  Pedro Alvarez is a candidate to hit 40 homers, and Marte is a definite breakout player who could produce a 6+ WAR over a full season.  The team has some holes, especially in right field, first base, and the back end of the rotation, but another Wild Card berth should be reachable for the team in 2014.
3.) Cincinnati Reds
The backbone of the Reds in 2014 will undoubtedly be the pitching, with five above average starters filling the rotation heading into opening day.  Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, Mike Leake, and Mat Latos are all established major league pitchers, and 24 year-old Tony Cingrani was very impressive in 18 starts last season.  The lineup is more of a concern, as there are no impact bats behind Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, as Brandon Phillips is clearly in the decline phase of his career.  There is also a major offensive downgrade in center, with Billy Hamilton replacing Shin-Soo Choo.  Hamilton may be the fastest player in the game today, but he has not shown that he can hit or get on base at the major league, or even AAA, level.  Still, the strength of the rotation will allow them to compete for a Wild Card spot, and they will battle with the Pirates for second place in the NL Central.
4.) Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers only won 74 games in 2013, but should see an improvement on that number in 2014.  The Brewers surprisingly have few holes on their roster, with the only glaring hole on offense being Lyle Overbay at first base.  That could change, however, if Khris Davis and Scooter Gennett fail to produce numbers that approach what they were able to do in their rookie seasons, which is a definite possibility.  The biggest factor in the lineup will obviously be the return of Ryan Braun, and it will be interesting to see if there is a drop off in performance since his PED suspension, but we can still expect Braun to be an elite hitter.  The Brewers also may get a full season from Aramis Ramirez, a player who has produced far above average offensive numbers over the past decade.  The rotation doesn't have any stars, as Matt Garza is realistically a middle of the rotation starter, and maybe a number two in a division like the NL Central.  Kyle Lohse could be the ace of the staff again, and Yovani Gallardo, Marco Estrada, and Wily Peralta should be able to add valuable innings.  The Brewers may be able to surprise some people in 2014, and don't count them out as a dark-horse candidate to win a Wild Card spot.
5.) Chicago Cubs
While the other four teams in the NL Central have at least some chance at the playoffs, the Cubs do not. The 2013 season saw major struggles from Starlin Castro at the plate, and also saw Anthony Rizzo have a drop in production from 2012, where he posted an .805 OPS.  The only hope the Cubs have of winning 70 games in 2014 is if both Castro and Rizzo bounce back to 2012 form, and if Junior Lake continues to develop.  Nate Schierholtz is a platoon hitter without a platoon partner, and isn't even a great platoon hitter, posting a .799 OPS against righties in 2013.  Mike Olt and Javier Baez could see significant time in the majors this year, with both prospects bringing a great deal of power to the table. Expect the rotation to be weak, with Travis Wood and Jeff Samardzija at the top of the rotation.  The Cubs have built a great farm system with multiple impact bats, including Baez, Olt, Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler, Albert Almora, and Arismendy Alcantara, and they should be able to bring the Cubs back into contention in the near future.  Until then, the Cubs will remain at the bottom of the NL Central.

NL West

1.) Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers enter the 2014 with the most talented roster in the majors.  When healthy, the team is full of superstars, including the best pitcher in baseball (AKA Clayton Kershaw), Zack Greinke, Hanley Ramirez, Matt Kemp, and maybe even Yasiel Puig.  There there may not be another team that can say they have a core like those five.  However, health is a major issue, with Kemp and Kershaw beginning the year on the DL.  If they can come back and play at full strength, those two can be the best pitcher-hitter duo in the majors, as Kemp still possesses MVP-caliber talent.  If Puig can post similar numbers as he did in his rookie year and Hanley Ramirez continues his success from 2013, the middle of this lineup could be the most feared in the game.  Backing up the lineup is a great rotation with a great deal of depth, with Hyun-Jin Ryu taking the number three starter role, and the team currently has Dan Haren and Paul Maholm at the back of the rotation, with Chad Billingsley and Josh Beckett due back from injury before June.  The bullpen is great, the bench is very talented, and on paper, the Dodgers are one heck of a team.  As of now, they are the team to beat in the MLB and possibly World Series favorites.
2.) San Francisco Giants
The Giants are coming off a very disappointing season in 2013, where they only won 76 games and saw declines in performances from guys like Matt Cain and Buster Posey.  Although those hurt in 2013, they do leave room for improvement heading into 2014, as we can expect those two, along with Pablo Sandoval and maybe even Ryan Vogelsong to put up improved numbers, and you never know what to expect from Tim Lincecum.  Hunter Pence could produce around an .800 OPS, and Mike Morse could hit 25 home runs, along with Brandon Belt being a solid run producer.  The rotation has a lot of upside, as Madison Bumgarner is a legitimate ace, with Cain being a potential ace if he can move on from the 2013 season, Lincecum and Vogelsong being wild cards, and Tim Hudson being a historically good pitcher.  The Giants have the talent to make the playoffs and even contend for the division if the Dodgers experience a lot of injuries or regression, but that is counting on bounce back seasons from some of their most important players.
3.) Arizona Diamondbacks
There has been an alarmingly high number of Tommy John surgeries this spring, and the Diamondbacks were not exempt from this, as their potential ace Patrick Corbin is now out for the season due to the surgery.  The Diamondbacks will now rely on Trevor Cahill and Bronson Arroyo to lead the rotation, and are hoping for a significant impact when top pitching prospect Archie Bradley is ready to join the club.  Offensively, the D-backs have threats in Mark Trumbo and Paul Goldshmidt, with Goldschmidt being an MVP-type bat.  Both have the chance to lead the NL in home runs this season, and should be feared in the middle of the Diamondbacks' lineup.  The team has solid support around them in the lineup, with no real holes, and there will plenty of opportunities to drive runs in.  However, with so many question marks in the rotation, it will be difficult for the D-backs to contend this year.  They could reach for a Wild Card spot, but will most likely have to wait until 2015 when Corbin returns to be true contenders.
4.) Colorado Rockies
The Rockies have one of the best offensive duos in the game with Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, and will also get significant production from Wilin Rosario and Michael Cuddyer, but will receive little outside of that group, unless Justin Morneau turns it around at Coors Field.  The pitching will again be a major problem for the Rockies, who will be carried by Jorge De La Rosa, and could also see good seasons from Tyler Chatwood and Brett Anderson.  The Rockies have a pair of top pitching prospects in Jon Gray and Eddie Butler, but there is no need to rush those players for the 2014 season, with it being unlikely that the Rockies could contend.
5.) San Diego Padres
The Padres are a team with no real star power, with Chase Headley being the most notable player in the lineup.  Headley was in contention for the MVP in 2012, but saw a steep decline in 2013, which may have been due to health issues.  Outside of Headley, the Padres have decent hitters, such as Will Venable, Carlos Quentin, Yonder Alonso, and Jed Gyorko, but don't have enough to consistently score runs.  The team signed Josh Johnson over the offseason, and he is already injured until at least the end of April, causing there to be even less pitching depth with the team.  Andrew Cashner can lead the rotation and lefty Eric Stults could produce good numbers, but the rotation behind them is weak, and that's saying something considering they play in a pitcher-friendly park.  The Padres will not contend this year, but they could beat out the Rockies for fourth in the division, and that's about all they can hope for during the 2014 season.

NL East: Nationals
NL Central: Cardinals
NL West: Dodgers
Wild Card: Braves over Pirates

NLDS: Dodgers over Braves
             Nationals over Cardinals
NLCS: Dodgers over Nationals

World Series
Dodgers over Tigers, 4 games to 3



POWER RANKINGS
1.) Dodgers
2.) Nationals
3.) Tigers
4.) Cardinals
5.) Red Sox
6.) Rays
7.) Rangers
8.) Braves
9.) Pirates
10.) Reds
11.) Yankees
12.) A's
13.) Giants
14.) Orioles
15.) Angels
16.) Royals
17.) Mariners
18.) Brewers
19.) Blue Jays
20.) Diamondbacks
21.) White Sox
22.) Indians
23.) Phillies
24.) Rockies
25.) Mets
26.) Marlins
27.) Padres
28.) Astros
29.) Cubs
30.) Twins

Best Divisions (based on Power Rankings)

1.) AL East
2.) NL Central
3.) AL West
4.) NL East
5.) NL West
6.) AL Central


AWARDS

AL MVP: Mike Trout
Runner-up: Miguel Cabrera
AL CY YOUNG: Justin Verlander
Runner-up: Yu Darvish
AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Masahiro Tanaka
Runner-up: Xander Bogaerts

NL MVP: Andrew McCutchen
Runner-up: Carlos Gonzalez
NL CY YOUNG: Clayton Kershaw
Runner-up: Stephen Strasburg
NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Chris Owings
Runner-up: Archie Bradley



Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below.  Would you like to have me write about a certain topic for next week's segment?  Let me know!  You can email me at mikemaw45@gmail.com.  I'd also love to have more writers to build the site, if you're looking for an opportunity to write, you can also email me at mikemaw45@gmail.com, and we can discuss any future opportunities.

Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Pirates Sign Marte To Extension

I know it's not a Sunday, but this is big news for the Pirates.  They have signed Starling Marte to a reported six year, $31 million extension with two option years, which could give the Pirates three more years of team control than they would have had they not signed this deal.  Marte would have become a free agent after the 2018 season, but now it is possible that he doesn't reach free agency until after 2021.



On paper, this is a great deal for the Pirates.  If you look at the current market, it's an even better deal for the organization.  With Major League Baseball's markets quickly evolving, contract amounts are skyrocketing, which can be exemplified by Clayton Kershaw's seven year, $215 million contract, good for over $30 million per year.  In a case more similar to Marte, we saw Jacoby Ellsbury sign a long-term deal with the Yankees over this offseason, a deal worth $153 million over seven years, which is over $21 million per year.  Curtis Granderson, coming off of a season where he totaled only 214 at bats, signed a four year, $60 million deal with the Mets.  Both of these players are into their thirties now and have passed their prime, and are still commanding $21+ million and $15 contracts over multiple years.  Looking more closely, Ellsbury posted a 5.8 WAR in his age 29 season in 2013, while Granderson posted a 3.0 WAR in his last full season in 2012, which was his age 31 season.  In comparison to that, Marte put up a 5.4 WAR in 2013, which was his first full year, and it came at the age of 24.  Marte actually posted a higher OPS, OPS+, and home run numbers than Ellsbury did in 2013, however Ellsbury played center field for the Red Sox, a more premium position that factors into the higher WAR number.  Marte also bested Ellsbury in UZR/150 (which can be explained by clicking here), where Marte posted a 18.4 UZR/150, while Ellsbury posted a UZR/150 of 12.9.

The reason I'm comparing these players is not to determine which player is better right now, it's to show the kind of market that exists for players with similar production to Marte.  Marte signed a six year, $31 million deal, but players with his skill set are receiving huge contracts on the open market, with another example being Shin-Soo Choo, who signed a seven year, $130 million deal this offseason.  One can point to the idea that a player like Ellsbury is proven and more of a sure bet than Marte is, but if you look at the past five years of Ellsbury's career, he has posted WAR's of 5.8, 1.0, 8.1, -0.1, and 2.7, while playing only three full years.  In baseball, nothing is a sure bet.  Look at Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, or even the 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates, things didn't happen the way people thought they would.  Any huge contract like Ellsbury's, Choo's, or Granderson's inherently comes with a large amount of risk.  Even Marte's contract, or even Jose Tabata's six year, $15 million contract, comes with some risk, although it is much more minimized.  The difference between the big contacts and Marte's contract is the years that the team is paying for during the contract.  Typically, a hitter's prime years come in his late twenties, meaning that the Yankees are paying over $21 million per year for a declining Jacoby Ellsbury, who will be a completely different player at the end of the contract than when he originally signed the deal.  In Marte's case, he's entering his age-25 season, meaning that he may not hit his prime seasons for a few more years.  The Pirates are betting on Marte improving on his already impressive start to his career, and are doing it with reduced risk of a contract that has an average annual value of about $5.17 million, compared to a contract that could be worth over $20 million a year if Marte was on the open market after the Pirates no longer had team control.

It's hard to not become excited about Marte's future with the Pirates.  Marte was better in his first full season than Andrew McCutchen was in his, and both put up a 5.4 WAR in their age-24 season.  Marte had a higher line drive percentage at age 24 than McCutchen did, 21.6% compared to 20.0%, and had the same home run to fly ball ratio.  Marte stole more bases and was better in the field, with power being the only major category where Marte trailed McCutchen, and I'll take this chance to mention that Marte's power is still evolving.  Am I saying that Marte is better than McCutchen was at the same point in their career's?  No.  Am I suggesting there is a chance that Marte could approach what McCutchen is doing with his career right now?  Definitely.  Marte is a supremely talented player who can be a true five-tool outfielder with a batting average over .300, home run totals approaching 20 per year, 40 stolen bases, an a perennial Gold Glove candidate in the outfield.  He has the talent, he has the numbers, and he's young, all pointing to a very bright future for Marte.

Like I've stated previously, there is risk in this contract.  He may not improve the way the Pirates think he will.  Marte strikes out a lot and barely walks, with a 24.4% strikeout rate and a 4.4% walk rate.  His BABIP was also very high in 2013, at .363, a number that will most likely become lower in 2014 and beyond.  However, the upside of this deal, and of Marte, is enormous, and it far outweighs the risk of an average annual value of $5.17 million for the contract.  Marte is one of the most talented young players in the majors right now, both offensively and defensively, and is only heading into his age 25-season, meaning there is a lot of time for his game to grow.  We saw how much of a steal a contract extension can be for a hugely talented 25 year old outfielder after McCutchen signed for $51.5 million over six years before 2012, and the Pirates could receive even more value per dollar on this deal.  Overall, the Pirates just signed a great player for a great value.  Paired with McCutchen for the foreseeable future, the Pirates may have one of the best outfield duos in the majors.  They also have someone named Gregory Polanco coming up to the show soon, who could be just as good, or even better, than Marte or McCutchen.

Nice job, Mr. Huntington and staff.



Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below.  Would you like to have me write about a certain topic for next week's segment?  Let me know!  You can email me at mikemaw45@gmail.com.  I'd also love to have more writers to build the site, if you're looking for an opportunity to write, you can also email me at mikemaw45@gmail.com, and we can discuss any future opportunities.

Saturday, March 22, 2014

2014 Pittsburgh Pirates Predictions

It's almost time.  Next Sunday, we will be one day away from 2014 regular season baseball for the Pirates.  The team is a coming off one of the most memorable seasons in franchise history, winning 94 games, winning the wild-card game against the Reds in one of the most electric stadium atmospheres anyone will ever experience, taking the Cardinals to game five of the NL Division Series, and finally ending the infamous streak of losing seasons at 20 years.  To many people, myself included, the season came as a surprise, as there was very little outside help that was added over the 2012-2013 offseason, and the team was coming off the second straight late season collapse.  However, new additions and young players exceeded all expectations for them, with Francisco Liriano pitching like an ace, Gerrit Cole showing his #1 potential, AJ Burnett having another great season, Russell Martin providing a huge upgrade at catcher, Pedro Alvarez tying for the NL lead with 36 home runs, Starling Marte putting up a 5.1 WAR in his first full season, and of course, Andrew McCutchen winning the NL MVP.
Heading into the 2014 season, there has been a lot of criticism about the lack of free agent additions, with Edinson Volquez being the biggest signing.  They pursued bigger names like Josh Johnson and James Loney, but could not get them to Pittsburgh, and also lost AJ Burnett to the Phillies.  However, like 2013, there is a lot of room for young players to step up and reach their potential, players who were injured in 2013 to possibly play a full-season, and top prospects to get the call to the show and make an impact.  Here are my 2014 Pittsburgh Pirates Predictions.


Top 5 Starting Pitchers:

Gerrit Cole: 14-6, 2.72 ERA, 195 IP, 182 K's, 1.11 WHIP

Francisco Liriano: 11-9, 3.59 ERA, 168 IP, 166 K's, 1.24 WHIP

Charlie Morton: 8-8, 3.87 ERA, 171 IP, 126 K's, 1.27 WHIP

Wandy Rodriguez: 6-7, 4.10 ERA, 155 IP, 107 K's, 1.23 WHIP

Edinson Volquez: 4-6, 4.77 ERA, 125 IP, 111 K's, 1.46 WHIP 


Other Pitchers

Brandon Cumpton: 3-2, 4.14 ERA, 54 IP, 36 K's, 1.26 WHIP, 0 Saves

Jeanmar Gomez: 2-2, 3.96 ERA, 56 IP, 35 K's, 1.31 WHIP, 0 Saves

Jason Grilli: 1-2, 2.70 ERA, 59 IP, 81 K's, 1.12 WHIP, 43 Saves

Jared Hughes: 0-1, 4.32 ERA, 22 IP, 15 K's, 1.28 WHIP, 0 Saves

Phil Irwin: 1-1, 4.43 ERA, 23 IP, 18 K's, 1.21 WHIP, 0 Saves

Jeff Locke: 5-5, 3.71 ERA, 111 IP, 86 K's, 1.31 WHIP, 0 Saves

Vin Mazzaro: 3-5, 4.38 ERA, 42 IP, 26 K's, 1.34 WHIP, 0 Saves

Mark Melancon: 3-1, 2.63 ERA, 68 IP, 66 K's, 1.07 WHIP, 4 Saves

Bryan Morris: 5-2, 3.11 ERA, 67 IP, 54 K's, 1.26 WHIP, 0 Saves

Andy Oliver: 0-0, 9.00 ERA, 3 IP, 2 K's, 2.00 WHIP, 0 Saves

Stolmy Pimentel: 6-4, 3.53 ERA, 80 IP, 65 K's, 1.24 WHIP, 0 Saves

Joely Rodriguez: 0-0, --ERA, --IP, --K's, ---WHIP, --Saves

Casey Sadler: 0-0, 4.50 ERA, 10 IP, 4 K's, 1.50 WHIP, 0 Saves

Tony Watson: 4-2, 2.42 ERA, 75 IP, 65 K's, 1.00 WHIP, 1 Saves

Duke Welker: 1-2, 4.50 ERA, 16 IP, 12 K's, 1.36 WHIP, 0 Saves

Justin Wilson: 5-2, 2.89 ERA, 78 IP, 69 K's, 1.08 WHIP, 2 Saves

PITCHER OF THE YEAR:  Gerrit Cole
BREAKOUT PITCHER OF THE YEAR:  Bryan Morris
RELIEVER OF THE YEAR:  Jason Grilli

Catchers:

Russell Martin: 423 AB, .237 AVG, 14 HR, 58 RBI, 7 SB, .718 OPS

Tony Sanchez: 102 AB, .274 AVG, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 1 SB, .772 OPS

Chris Stewart: 112 AB, .212 AVG, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 1 SB, .571 OPS

Infielders:

Pedro Alvarez: 572 AB, .254 AVG, 34 HR, 102 RBI, 1 SB, .801 OPS

Clint Barmes: 201 AB, .219 AVG, 4 HR, 16 RBI, 0 SB, .578 OPS

Alen Hanson: 0 AB, --AVG, --HR, --RBI, --SB, --OPS

Chris McGuiness: 42 AB, .262 AVG, 2 HR, 0 SB, .741 OPS

Jordy Mercer: 421 AB, .276 AVG, 12 HR, 6 SB, .774 OPS

Brent Morel: 28 AB, .214 AVG, 0 HR, 0 SB, .513 OPS

Gaby Sanchez: 408 AB, .257 AVG, 11 HR, 1 SB, .770 OPS

Neil Walker: 508 AB, .277 AVG, 17 HR, 4 SB, .785 OPS


Outfielders:

Jaff Decker: 26 AB, .269 AVG, 1 HR, 0 SB, .772 OPS

Josh Harrison: 106 AB, .268 AVG, 3 HR, 4 SB, .701 OPS

Andrew Lambo: 236 AB, .251 AVG, 11 HR, 1 SB, .765 OPS

Starling Marte: 594 AB, .307 AVG, 17 HR, 38 SB, .838 OPS

Andrew McCutchen: 586 AB, .325 AVG, 26 HR, 24 SB, .943 OPS

Gregory Polanco: 398 AB, .273 AVG, 12 HR, 23 SB, .773 OPS

Travis Snider: 134 AB, .277 AVG, 3 HR, 2 SB, .755 OPS

Jose Tabata: 118 AB, .286 AVG, 2 HR, 3 SB, .778 OPS


HITTER OF THE YEAR:  Andrew McCutchen
BREAKOUT HITTER OF THE YEAR:  Starling Marte
MOST VALUABLE BENCH PLAYER: Andrew Lambo

And the Player Who People Want To See Who Is Not On the 40-Man

Jameson Taillon: 10-7, 3.47 ERA, 108 IP, 96 K's, 1.23 WHIP, 0 Saves


Whole Team Awards

Team MVP:  Andrew McCutchen
Rookie of the Year:  Jameson Taillon


TEAM RECORD:  87-75

Minor League Awards

AAA
BEST HITTER: Tony Sanchez
BEST PITCHER: Brandon Cumpton
BREAKOUT PLAYER: Phillip Irwin

AA
BEST HITTER: Alen Hanson
BEST PITCHER: Joely Rodriguez
BREAKOUT PLAYER: Willy Garcia

A+
BEST HITTER: Josh Bell
BEST PITCHER: Tyler Glasnow
BREAKOUT PLAYER: Luis Heredia

A
BEST HITTER: Austin Meadows
BEST PITCHER: Luis Heredia
BREAKOUT PLAYER: Jacoby Jones

Whole System Awards
HITTER OF THE YEAR: Josh Bell
PITCHER OF THE YEAR: Tyler Glasnow
BREAKOUT PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Luis Heredia


The stat predictions were based off trends in recent years, expectancy of regression/improvement based on advanced stats, and expectations and potential for the younger players with little experience in the majors.

I'd love to hear your predictions, leave them in the comment section below!


Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below.  Would you like to have me write about a certain topic for next week's segment?  Let me know!  You can email me at mikemaw45@gmail.com.  I'd also love to have more writers to build the site, if you're looking for an opportunity to write, you can also email me at mikemaw45@gmail.com, and we can discuss any future opportunities.

Sunday, March 16, 2014

Should Gregory Polanco Have Made The Opening Day Roster? A Look At the Right Field Situation For 2014


The Pirates came into the offseason with a big question mark in right field, as they weren't expected to sign Marlon Byrd (which was the right move), their starting right fielder during September and October.  Byrd signed a two year, $16 million deal early in the offseason with the Phillies, officially creating a "need" for the Pirates in right.  The Pirates stayed quiet throughout the offseason, with their biggest signing being pitcher Edinson Volquez on a one year, $5 million deal.  The lack of a signing or trade for an offensive upgrade in right field (or at first base) has been concerning for many fans, as they are wondering how the Pirates plan on filling the void at these positions.

This article is going to focus on the right field situation, where Pirates' management has made it clear that they are comfortable going into the 2014 season with the players they already have in the organization.  The options at the beginning of Spring Training included Jaff Decker, Gregory Polanco, Andrew Lambo, Travis Snider, and Jose Tabata.  The players with the best chance of claiming the starting job at right entering Spring Training were Travis Snider and Jose Tabata, the duo the Pirates had starting going into the 2013 season.  However, the name that may stand out most on that list is Gregory Polanco, who was optioned to AAA Indianapolis on Friday.  Polanco is a 6'4", 220 lb center fielder who can hit, hit for power, run, field, and throw, is rated the top prospect in the Pirates' organization by virtually every major baseball outlet, and is rated as the tenth best prospect in baseball by Baseball America.  Polanco has received a lot of hype in the recent months, winning both the Most Valuable Player and Rookie Of the Year awards in the Dominican Winter League, as well as impressing almost every scout that has seen him this spring.  It seems that nearly every time I have turned on the radio to listen to 93.7 The Fan and they are talking about the Pirates, a lot of the discussion and calls revolve around Polanco, and the question "Should Polanco be on the opening day roster?" is posed.  

Entering the 2012 season, the same question was being asked about Starling Marte, who was coming off a season where he hit .332 with 12 home runs and an .870 OPS in AA.  In 25 spring at bats, Marte had already hit three homers, had a .520 average, and an OPS of 1.440, and fans were calling for him to be in the opening day lineup over Jose Tabata or Alex Presley.  However, Marte was sent to AAA to begin the season, where he hit .286 with 12 homers and an .847 OPS in 388 at bats before being called up to the majors in July.  In his first full season in 2013, Marte had a batting line of .280/.343/.441, with 12 home runs, 41 stolen bases, an OPS of .784, and a 5.4 WAR.  There were a few reasons why Marte was sent down, and two major reasons were to get him time playing in a corner outfield spot, and also to work on his plate discipline.  Also, Marte had no at bats at the AAA level heading into the 2012 season.  Polanco is in a similar situation from a position standpoint, as he has only seven games in right field over the past three seasons, the position he will be playing in the majors.  A big difference between the two, however, is their approach at the plate.  Marte struggled with strikeouts and walks while in the minors (and still does), while Polanco has above average plate discipline, with a career 15.52% strikeout rate in the minors, along with a 9.56% walk rate.  Polanco, like Marte, has basically no experience at the AAA level (nine AB's), and some extra seasoning can be very beneficial to a player's future.

The Pirates have had a few top position player prospects graduate to the majors in the recent years, most notably Marte, Andrew McCutchen, and Pedro Alvarez.  Polanco joins this group as another potential impact bat at the top or in the middle of the Pirates' lineup.  But, how did each of those other three players reach the majors?
Starling Marte: Marte was signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2007, and played in parts of five seasons before reaching AAA to begin the 2012 season.  Marte was pushed aggressively through the lower levels, never receiving a full season's worth of games at any level, which was also largely due to injuries.  His first full season came in 2011 at AA, where he improved upon his lower level success, added power to his game, and become a consensus top 75 prospect in the game.  While he could have been used as a primary corner outfielder in the majors to open the 2012 season, the Pirates sent him to AAA, where he received 388 at bats before being called up to the majors.
Andrew McCutchen:  These next two players are in a different situation than Marte, as they were both first round draft picks by the Pirates.  McCutchen was the 11th overall pick out of high school in 2005, and began his professional career that year in the Gulf Coast League.  In his first full season at the age of 19, McCutchen spent most of the year in low-A before being aggressively pushed to AA to end the season, where he totaled 78 at bats.  McCutchen returned to that level in 2007, spending the majority of the season at that level before ending in AAA.  In 2008, McCutchen spent a full season at the AAA level, and had two more months at that level before being called up in June of 2009 following the Nate McClouth trade.  Cutch had a total of 780 at bats at the AAA level.  
Pedro Alvarez: Alvarez was drafted out of college in 2008 as the number two overall pick, and as an elite college hitter it was assumed he would move quickly through the minors.  That assumption proved true, as he spent his first full season in 2009 splitting time between high-A and AA, before moving on to AAA to begin the 2010 season.  Alvarez was called up to the majors in June of that year after only receiving 242 at bats at the AAA level.
Alvarez was ranked higher as a prospect than both Marte and McCutchen, and also spent much less time in the minors than they did.  Alvarez was considered a middle of the order power threat that could carry an offense, but like Marte, Alvarez struggled with his plate discipline.  In 2009, Alvarez struck out in 23.80% of his plate appearances, and saw that number increase in 2010 at AAA, up to 24.46%.  As I'm sure Pirates fans are very well aware of, Alvarez's strikeout problems have followed him to the majors.  In his MLB career, Alvarez has a 30.57% strikeout rate, leading the NL with 186 in 2013.  Plate discipline was possibly the biggest aspect of Alvarez's game that is holding him back from being an MVP candidate, and was something he really needed to work on in the minors, but didn't have much of a chance to because he was rushed to the majors too quickly.  McCutchen basically spent one and a half years at the AAA level, and had instant success at the major league level, and is the reigning MVP.  Marte used his time to become more patient at the plate, drawing more walks, while also learning a new position and getting more experience against upper level pitching.  He received less than 400 at bats at AAA, and experienced some difficulties in his rookie season, hitting .257 with a .737 OPS.  He rebounded in 2013 and had a 5.4 WAR (5 is considered All-Star level), not too shabby for your first full year.  Maybe some extra time in the minors is a good thing.

One thing that must be taken into consideration is Polanco's service time.  There is no set time for this, but if Polanco started the season in the majors and remains in the majors for good during the first couple or months, give or take a week or two, he will become a free agent at the conclusion of the 2019 season.  However, since they held back and are going to give him the valuable time in the minors that he may need and wait to recall him until mid-June or July, then he would not be eligible to become a free agent until after the 2020 season.  That leads to the question "Would you rather have two extra months of Polanco as a rookie, or an extra year of Polanco while he is in his prime?"  That seems like an easy answer, one where the Pirates made the right decision.  Some will point to the fact that the Pirates could be in contention during the 2014 season and that having Polanco in the lineup throughout the year could have pushed them into the playoffs.  While that may be true, the fact of the matter is that the Pirates have one of the top farm systems in baseball, and they are set up to contend for the foreseeable future, including 2020.  This is an extremely-too-early look at the Pirates possible 2020 lineup and rotation (Currently no players are under contract for the 2020 season.  This is assuming that all players who are not under team control in 2020 will not remain with the organization, while there is a good chance that will not be the case. Also, there will be many other players added to the organization via signings, trades, and drafted that will not appear on this list.)
Rotation
1.) Jameson Taillon (if he is recalled mid-June or later this year)
2.) Tyler Glasnow
3.) Nick Kingham
4.) Luis Heredia
5.) Brandon Cumpton

C- Reese McGuire
1B- Josh Bell
2B- Jacoby Jones
3B- Wyatt Mathisen
SS- Alen Hanson
LF- Austin Meadows
CF- Gregory Polanco
RF- Harold Ramirez

If you look at this list, eight of the 13 players (the ones in bold) have been ranked as top 100 prospects heading into the 2014 season.  Luis Heredia is 19 years old and has been previously listed on top prospect lists, and 19 year old Harold Ramirez could very well show up on those lists as soon as mid-season.  The only positions where the Pirates don't have a lot of minor league depth is at 1B, 2B, and 3B, as Bell (OF), Jones (SS/OF), and Mathisen (C), don't currently play the positions I have them listed at in this future projection.  Regardless, the Pirates have a very good future outlook, and it would appear the Pirates will be in contention for a long time.  Polanco could very well help the team at the beginning of 2014, but two months of his rookie season will not compare to having him for a full season in his prime in 2020.  Also, the Pirates may have one or two capable players to man right field for a couple of months until Polanco arrives in Pittsburgh.

The most over-looked player on the Pirates in 2013 may very well have been Jose Tabata.  His line at the end of the year was a solid .282/.342/.429, with a career high .771 OPS in 308 at bats.  Tabata also had career highs with six home runs and a 119 OPS+ (100 being average).  To put that in perspective, Neil Walker had an OPS+ of 115, Pedro Alvarez was at 116, and Starling Marte was at 122.  When Tabata was receiving everyday at bats in August, he batted .310 and had an OPS of .851 in 84 at bats.  He also had a strong month of September when Marte went down with an injury, batting .315 with an .844 OPS in 73 at bats.  Tabata has never been one to strike out much, with a career 14.4% strikeout rate, and showed considerable more power in 2013, with a .146 ISO (Slugging percentage minus batting average), compared to .105 in 2012 and .096 in 2011.  There is a chance that he may not continue that power, as only his home run to fly ball rate (HR/FB) showed significant improvement in 2013, at a relatively high 10.2% in 2013, compared to 5.6%, 6.7%, and 4.8% over the previous three seasons.  His swing isn't built for much power, but he has the muscle to possibly hit around 10-12 homers over a full season.  Fans also tend to forget how young Tabata is, with 2013 being his age 24 season, still giving him plenty of time to figure things out and become the player many thought he would be after his rookie season in 2010.  Tabata could receive the majority of AB's in right until Polanco is recalled, and if that is the case, the Pirates will be able to see what they have in Tabata for the future.  

Another player that is in real consideration for the right field job is Travis Snider.  Snider was acquired in a Trade Deadline deal in 2012 that sent pitcher Brad Lincoln to the Blue Jays in return for Snider.  Snider was once the number six prospect in baseball heading into the 2009 season, and has had some success at the major league level, hitting 14 home runs in 298 at bats as a 22 year old in 2010.  However, Snider has not received much regular playing time in the majors since then, and has also dealt with injuries.  When Snider was healthy and receiving regular playing time during April of 2013, he hit .300 in 60 AB's with a .799 OPS.  Unfortunately, Snider hit .189 for the rest of the season over 201 AB's, dropping his season average to .215.  Personally, it has been difficult for me to watch Snider play as a Pirate, as he has yet to take advantage of the situation he was placed in, coming to Pittsburgh with a great opportunity at a young age of 24 with no one blocking him in right field.  He was three years removed from being one of the top prospects in the game, and he was showing power at both the minor and major league level that year, with a combined 16 home runs in 267 at bats.  Snider arrived in Pittsburgh with a lot of promise, but has not lived up to it, or even come close.  In 389 AB's as a Bucco, Snider has hit .226 with a .627 OPS, and only six home runs.  He's not hitting the ball nearly as hard as he has in the past, with a 15.2% line drive percentage in 2013, compared to 24.3% in 2010, and an 8.2% HR/FB rate last year, not a good number for a guy who is supposed to be a power hitter.  This lack of good contact can be attributed to his swing, which is long and involves too much of his upper body and arms, rather than his legs, which takes away from his power.  With all that being said, there are positive vibes surrounding Snider during Spring Training.  He made a great effort to get in better shape, he's looked good in workouts, and he's healthy.  Snider will most likely never be the 30 home run hitter many thought he could be, but he has shown in the past, and recently at the beginning of 2013, that when he's healthy and receiving a lot of at bats, he can produce at the major league level.  Will he get the chance entering his age 26 season?  That remains to be seen.  But don't count him out, he has a career .968 OPS in 728 AB's in AAA, and has had previous success in the majors.  I think there was another player recently who was a former top prospect who broke out at the age of 26 after finally receiving regular playing time at the major league level.  I believe his name was Chris Davis.

Tabata is a right handed batter, and Snider is a lefty, making it likely that the Pirates head into the 2014 season with a plan to platoon those two players, like they did to begin the 2013 season.  Both players have dealt with injuries over the years, and it is very possible that at least one of these two go down with an injury early in the season, giving the everyday at bats to the other member of the platoon.  If both of these players go down with an injury or are under-performing at the plate and management is not yet comfortable with Polanco as the primary right fielder, the team could turn to Jaff Decker, Andrew Lambo, or even Chris Dickerson, who is having a great Spring at the plate so far.  Lambo would seem to be the best option, but he may be half of a first base platoon with Gaby Sanchez.  If they would turn to Lambo in right, Sanchez could take over full-time at first, or Chris McGuiness, who was acquired from the Rangers this offseason, could take over Lambo's role as the lefty platoon partner.

Polanco has tremendous upside, there's no doubt about it.  He has the ability to one day be a .300+ hitter with 25 home runs, 40 stolen bases, and Gold Glove caliber defense in the outfield.  Basically, Polanco could be another Andrew McCutchen in the Pirates outfield.  I also believe Marte has the upside of a .300+ hitter with 20 homers and 40 stolen bases, and a combination of those three players would easily give the Pirates the best outfield in the majors, and maybe the best in franchise history.  But, should that happen right away?  McCutchen is under contract until 2018 if the Pirates pick up his option, the same year as Marte's last season under team control.  That would still give the Pirates four full seasons of a Marte-McCutchen-Polanco outfield before Marte and McCutchen could leave via free agency, as well as possibly half a season in 2014 in addition to those four years.  Minor league time is very valuable for players to work on their struggles, and rushing a player's development can limit their future potential, which can be exemplified by Pedro Alvarez, who could have benefitted greatly from more time in the minors and been more than the all-or-nothing type hitter he is today.  

Is Gregory Polanco talented enough to make the opening day roster?  Yes.  Should Gregory Polanco have made the opening day roster?  No.  Polanco needs more experience against upper level pitching, with just nine AB's at the AAA level under his belt, and only half a season at AA, where he didn't exactly set the world on fire with his hitting.  He has hit well during Spring Training so far, but the quality of the pitching he has faced so far is basically at the AAA level, according to Baseball Reference.  Polanco also needs time to get accustomed to right field, where he will be playing when he gets the call to the majors.  In the meantime, the Pirates should be comfortable with a combination of Jose Tabata and Travis Snider in right.  If things go right, the two have the ability to produce an OPS of .780-.800, if not higher, as evidenced by Tabata's last two months and Snider's first month of 2013.  It is very probable that we will see Polanco join Marte and McCutchen in the Pirates' outfield at some point in 2014, but it would not be in the organization's best interest for him to start the season in the MLB.  

Pirates fans are going to have to take the same approach that the tall, young, and athletic phenom Gregory Polanco has at the plate: Just be patient.  He'll be here soon enough.




Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below.  Would you like to have me write about a certain topic for next week's segment?  Let me know!  You can email me at mikemaw45@gmail.com.  I'd also love to have more writers to build the site, if you're looking for an opportunity to write, you can also email me at mikemaw45@gmail.com, and we can discuss any future opportunities.

Welcome to Sunday Pinstripes

Welcome to Sunday Pinstripes!  My name is Michael Mawhinney and I am currently a freshman
Business Administration student at Carnegie Mellon University.  I have been an avid baseball fan since the beginning of high school, and my dream is to become a member of the Front Office of a Major League Baseball organization (currently working on finding Internships for that with some connections I have right now).  In the past I have written for a couple of baseball blogs as the head writer, with those blogs being "Bloggin Buccos" and "The Future GM", and I have also been offered to write for a few small outlets, but I didn't have the time to meet their requirements.  Also, I'm not great with the formatting for a blog, and the website my not look that great at first, but I will work all that out in due time.

Bloggin Buccos was a blog that focused solely on the Pittsburgh Pirates.  That is what I plan on doing with the "Sunday Pinstripes" blog.  I really wanted to build Bloggin Buccos this year, but as I'm sure it's the same at other universities, CMU doesn't really give me much free time.  This has prevented me from writing every day, or even every other day, about topics that I find interesting in regards to the Pirates.  This has caused me to stop writing about baseball for a few months, but I have never stopped studying the game.  Recently, I had the idea to write one or two big feature posts over the course of each week, and use those to make a weekly Pirates blog, with the articles coming out on Sundays.  I decided to make a new blog for this instead of using Bloggin Buccos, and with that, Sunday Pinstripes was born.  

The name "Sunday Pinstripes" comes from the days when I was younger and the Pirates would wear pinstripes for their day games on Sundays at PNC Park.  My friends and I loved that, and I know we miss those jerseys, even though they were worn by some pretty bad teams.  Since the articles for this blog will be posted every Sunday, I thought it would be a fitting name. 

That's the background for this new blog.  It should be easier to keep this blog running, as I only have to write one or two entries per week, and I can cover bigger topics that will be interesting to a larger group of people.  That being said, if you would like me to write about a certain topic or answer a big question, don't hesitate to email me at mikemaw45@gmail.com, as I think it's great to write about what is concerning Pirates fans.  Thanks for reading this, and I hope you all enjoy the new Pittsburgh Pirates weekly blog, Sunday Pinstripes!