In this preview, I will rank my top 30 prospects in the system with short write-ups on each player, predict potential breakout prospects, rank the top five prospects at each position, list the five players closest to the majors, provide a "best tools" list, and predict the lineup and rotation in 2018.
TOP 30 PROSPECTS
1) Gregory Polanco--OF--22 years old--AAA
Polanco is a five-tool prospect that has the chance to rival Andrew McCutchen in offensive and defensive production, possibly giving the Pirates the top outfield in the majors along with Starling Marte.
2) Jameson Taillon--RHP--22--AAA
The number two pick in the 2010 draft, Taillon pairs a mid-90's fastball with a power curve in the low 80's and a good changeup. Taillon was expected to join the Pirates around midseason in 2014, but an elbow injury has made his status for the beginning of the season uncertain.
UPDATE: Taillon will undergo Tommy John Surgery and will miss the remainder of the season.
UPDATE: Taillon will undergo Tommy John Surgery and will miss the remainder of the season.
3) Tyler Glasnow--RHP--20--A+
Glasnow was one of the biggest breakout prospects in baseball in 2013, posting great numbers across the board with a 2.18 ERA and a 13.3 K/9, thanks to a mid-90's fastball that touches 99 and a plus curve. Glasnow will also miss some time at the beginning of the season, with back stiffness that will keep him out for 2-3 weeks.
4) Austin Meadows--OF--19--A
As is a current trend at the top of the system, Meadows will also miss time to begin the season, dealing with a hamstring issue. Meadows is potential five-tool player who can play any outfield spot, with ability that has gotten him comparisons to Mike Trout. Obviously those comparisons may not be fair, but it's worth mentioning when your talent puts you in the same sentence as Trout.
5) Josh Bell--OF--21--A+
After missing most of 2012 with a knee injury, Bell came back strong in 2013 and showed why he was given a $5 million bonus when he signed as a second round pick. Look for Bell's home run numbers to improve in 2014, as he has the potential to be a .300 hitter with 25+ home runs a year as a switch hitter.
6) Luis Heredia--RHP--19--A
This is the highest you will see Heredia ranked right now as far as prospect lists go for the Pirates, mainly due to Heredia showing up to Spring Training in 2013 out of shape, leading to him being held back in extended Spring Training and losing innings for the season. He also dealt with control issues, but still managed a 3.05 ERA for the year. Heredia will repeat low-A to begin the year, but we must remember that he is still only 19 years-old and has reached the upper 90's in the past with his fastball and has the potential for a plus breaking pitch that is somewhat slurvy, along with a solid change. Don't lose faith on him just yet.
7) Alen Hanson--SS--21--AA
Hanson made it to AA in 2013, but didn't hit as well last year as he did in 2012, especially at the AA level. I'm not convinced he will hit and there are a lot of questions about his ability to play shortstop, but if he reaches his potential he could be an All-Star.
8) Nick Kingham--RHP--22--AA
Kingham carried the success of a strong second half of 2012 into 2013, starting the year at high-A and finishing in AA. He has a strong arsenal with a 91-93 MPH fastball that reaches the mid-90's, along with a curve and changeup that are both above average pitches.
9) Reese McGuire--C--19--A
The fourteenth overall pick in the 2013 draft, McGuire started his professional career strong by hitting .323 in 50 games. McGuire's calling card is his defense, as he is one of the best defensive catchers in the minors. His bat is a question, but there is potential for him to be at least an average MLB hitter. If he hits, he could be an All-Star.
10) Tony Sanchez--C--26--AAA/MLB
After struggling offensively for two years in the minors, Sanchez regained his prospect status by hitting for a .872 OPS at AAA in 2013 and reaching the majors. He started the 2014 at the major league level, but will be sent down after Chris Stewart is healthy again. There is a high chance Sanchez will be the starting catcher in 2015 for the Pirates, and will also take over as starter in 2014 if Russell Martin goes down with an injury.
11) Harold Ramirez--OF--19--A
A speedy outfielder from Colombia, Ramirez will play his first full season in 2014 at low-A West Virginia. Ramirez makes solid contact and has gap power, but will probably never hit more than 10-12 home runs in a year.
12) Brandon Cumpton--RHP--25--AAA
Cumpton reached the majors last year, posting a 2.05 ERA in 31 IP, including a seven inning shutout start against the Cardinals. He will be used as depth for both the major league rotation and bullpen in 2014, and could be a number four or five starter in the future.
13) Stolmy Pimentel--RHP--24--MLB
Pimentel was out of options to start the 2014 season, and therefore had to be on the major league roster or he would most likely have been lost on waivers. Pimentel can throw in the mid-90's and has a great slider that can generate strikeouts, giving him the potential to be a number three or four starter in the majors one day.
14) Andrew Lambo--1B/OF--25--AAA
Lambo was expected to be the lefty half of the first base platoon for the Pirates to begin 2014, but a 4-42 spring lost him that opportunity, with Travis Ishikawa taking that spot. Lambo hit 33 home runs across three levels last year, and could still be a provider for the Pirates in 2014.
15) Barrett Barnes--OF--22--A
Barnes missed a large portion of 2013 with an injury, totaling only 183 at bats. He wasn't impressive in those bats, with a .399 slugging percentage, a bad number for a player with his raw power, although that may have been due to the injury. Barnes will return to low-A to start 2014, and in his age 22 season, he will have to develop quickly, especially in a system filled with outfield talent.
16) Willy Garcia--OF--21--AA
Garcia is a player with a great deal of talent, but with he hasn't been able to put it all together yet. He has good raw power, good range in the outfield, and has a great arm, but will not have much success if he doesn't cut down on his strikeouts, striking out at a 32.08% rate in 2013.
17) Kyle McPherson--RHP--26--DL/AAA
McPherson was in contention with Jeff Locke for the fifth starter spot heading into 2013, but lost that battle and was injured very early in last season, requiring Tommy John Surgery in July. Before the injury he was throwing 92-94 MPH with great command, along with at least average curve and changeup. He had the upside of a solid number three starter, but is more likely to be a back of the rotation guy now, or a middle reliever. He could return to the mound before the All-Star break.
18) Joely Rodriguez--LHP--22--AA
Rodriguez was added to the 40-man roster after posting a 2.70 ERA in 140 IP across two levels in 2013. He has a fastball with good sink that sits 91-93 MPH and can reach the mid-90's, along with an average curve and change. He has solid control and could be a good back of the rotation starter.
19) Cody Dickson--LHP--22--A
The fourth round pick in the 2013 draft, Dickson has a solid three pitch mix, with a fastball that sits in 91-93 MPH that can hit 95, along with potential plus pitches in his curve and change. He struggles with his control, which could force him into the bullpen if he doesn't improve on that aspect of his game.
20) Clay Holmes--RHP--21--DL
Holmes struggled to begin the 2013 season, but improved his control as the season went on, and his overall numbers followed that improvement. He looked like he could follow a similar career path as Nick Kingham heading into 2014 until it was discovered that he needed Tommy John surgery and will miss all of the 2014 season.
21) Stetson Allie--1B--23--AA
Allie was once a pitcher. Let's not talk about those days ever again. Allie spent his first full season in the minors as a hitter in 2013, and got off to an amazing start in low-A, with 1.021 OPS and 16 homers in 244 at bats. He moved up to high-A for the remainder of the season and struggled, with a .697 OPS. Allie has a very high strikeout rate, similar to Pedro Alvarez, and won't have much success unless he works on his pitch recognition. The Pirates aggressively promoted him to AA to start the 2014 season, mainly due to his enormous raw power, which is the best in the system.
22) Jacoby Jones--SS/OF--22--A
Jones was one of the most athletic players in the 2013 draft, and the Pirates picked him up with the third pick. He got off to a great start after being drafted before injuring his knee, which took him out for the rest of the season. He will play shortstop in 2014, and could climb this list if he continues to hit and can stick at shortstop.
23) Wyatt Mathisen--3B--20--A
Mathisen was drafted as a catcher and seen as a potential two-way player, but was moved to third in spring in order to give him more playing time, with Reese McGuire being the catcher at the same level. Mathisen was injured for most of 2013, but when healthy he can hit for both average and decent power, along with have an above average arm at the hot corner.
24) Michael De La Cruz--OF--17--GCL
De La Cruz is the youngest player on this list, playing the 2013 season at the age of 16. He had success in the Dominican Summer League, batting .292, along with great plate discipline that was exemplified by a .436 OBP. He has good speed and a solid arm, and is comparable to fellow Pirates prospect Harold Ramirez.
25) Jaff Decker--OF--24--AAA
Decker was acquired over the offseason in a deal that sent Alex Dickerson over to the Padres. I like Dickerson a little better as a prospect, but Decker does impress with great plate discipline with a career .402 OBP in the minors. He doesn't hit for much power, and will his future should be as a fourth outfielder in the majors.
26) Phillip Irwin--RHP--27--AAA
At 27 years old Irwin is very old for a prospect, but is included on this list due to the probability that he could be in a decent amount of major league rotations right now. He made one start for the Pirates in 2013, then did not make an appearance for the remainder of the season after he was injured in that game. Irwin will be used as depth in 2014, and could make a few starts for the Pirates.
27) Jin-De Jhang--C--21--A+
Jhang was aggressively pushed to high-A to begin the 2014 season, skipping over low-A West Virginia to avoid a catching logjam with Reese McGuire. Jhang makes solid contact and has average power, which paired with improving defense make him an intriguing prospect to watch.
28) Blake Taylor--LHP--18--A-
Although Taylor was taken in the second round of the 2013 draft, he will play most of the 2014 season at 18 years old. He pairs a low 90's fastball that can reach 94-95 MPH with a potential plus curve, but needs to develop a changeup. He will most likely start the year in short season ball at either Jamestown or Bristol.
29) Casey Sadler--RHP--23--AAA
Sadler has had success at every level he has pitched at, and gained a lot more prospect recognition after posting a 3.31 ERA in 23 starts at the AA level in 2013. The Pirates move many young pitchers towards using a sinker, and Sadler is a product of that, and is seeing a lot of success with that pitch. Sadler could be used as extreme depth in the rotation in the majors in 2014 if needed, and could have a future as a back of the rotation starter.
30) Jose Osuna--1B--21--A+
Osuna is a bat-first first baseman, as he has little defensive value. Osuna struggled with his offensive production in 2013, but has the potential to be a hitter who can hit for a decent average along with average to above average power.
10 POTENTIAL BREAKOUT PROSPECTS
A "breakout" season means something different for different players. For a player near the top of the top 30 list, it could mean that he has a chance to move up to maybe the top spot, or even a top 10-25 spot in all of baseball. It could mean a chance to break a top 100 prospect list, or it could also mean that you could enter or make big strides in the top 30 Pirates prospects list.
1) Luis Heredia
2) Jacoby Jones
3) Stetson Allie
4) Austin Meadows
5) Willy Garcia
6) Harold Ramirez
7) Josh Bell
8) Reese McGuire
9) Jose Osuna
10) Danny Collins
TOP PROSPECTS AT EACH POSITION
RHP
1) Jameson Taillon
2) Tyler Glasnow
3) Luis Heredia
4) Nick Kingham
5) Brandon Cumpton
LHP
1) Joely Rodriguez
2) Cody Dickson
3) Blake Taylor
4) Andy Oliver
5) Zack Dodson
Catcher
1) Reese McGuire
2) Tony Sanchez
3) Jin-De Jhang
4) Carlos Paulino
5) Daniel Arribas
First Base
1) Andrew Lambo
2) Stetson Allie
3) Jose Osuna
4) Chris McGuiness
5) Danny Collins
Second Base
1) Erich Weiss
2) Jarek Cunningham
3) Drew Maggi
4) Dan Gamache
5) Ulises Montilla
Third Base
1) Wyatt Mathisen
2) Adalberto Santos
3) Eric Wood
4) Beau Wallace
5) Kevin Ross
Shortstop
1) Alen Hanson
2) Jacoby Jones
3) Adam Frazier
4) Max Moroff
5) Gift Ngoepe
Outfield
1) Gregory Polanco
2) Austin Meadows
3) Josh Bell
4) Harold Ramirez
5) Barrett Barnes
6) Willy Garcia
7) Michael De La Cruz
8) Jaff Decker
9) Mel Rojas Jr.
10) Elvis Escobar
5 CLOSEST TO THE MAJORS
1) Stolmy Pimentel
2) Tony Sanchez
3) Brandon Cumpton
4) Andrew Lambo
5) Gregory Polanco
BEST TOOLS
Best Contact- Gregory Polanco
Best Power- Stetson Allie
Best Plate Discipline- Jaff Decker
Best Speed- Gregory Polanco
Best Arm- Willy Garcia
Best Defensive Catcher- Reese McGuire
Best Defensive Infielder- Gift Ngoepe
Best Defensive Outfielder- Gregory Polanco
Best Fastball- Tyler Glasnow
Best Curve- Jameson Taillon
Best Slider- Stolmy Pimentel
Best Changeup- Nick Kingham
Best Control- Kyle McPherson
PROJECTED 2018 LINEUP/ROTATION
LINEUP
1) Starling Marte--LF
2) Gregory Polanco--RF
3) Andrew McCutchen--CF
4) Andrew Lambo/Stetson Allie--1B (Yeah, I'm predicting a platoon)
5) Reese McGuire--C
6) Alen Hanson--SS
7) Jacoby Jones--2B
8) Jordy Mercer--3B
ROTATION
1) Gerrit Cole
2) Jameson Taillon
3) Tyler Glasnow
4) Luis Heredia
5) Nick Kingham
Closer) Stolmy Pimentel
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